By Stephen DeAngelis
Rarely do prescribed medications have a noticeable impact on grocery sales. Unexpectedly, however, Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 agonists, like Ozempic, Trulicity, and Victoza, are significantly affecting consumers, food suppliers, and food retailers. An agonist is a substance that mimics the actions of a neurotransmitter or hormone to produce a response when it binds to a specific receptor in the brain. In this case, the hormone being mimicked is Glucagon-Like Peptide-1, more commonly known as GLP-1. GLP-1 agonists are used to treat type 2 diabetes and, more recently, to help reduce weight. Lifestyle journalist Stacey Leasca reports, “One in eight. That’s how many people living in the United States have taken some form of a glucagon-like peptide 1 medication for weight loss and related conditions, according to a 2024 poll by Kaiser Family Foundation. That number is likely even higher today when you consider that the same survey found that 32% of adults in 2024 said they’ve ‘heard a lot’ about the drugs.”[1]
GLP-1’s Effect on Consumers
If the above figures are correct, nearly 42 million people have taken or are using some type of GLP-1 medication. Research analyst Dane Finley puts the number of users at a more modest 15.5 million people.[2] That’s still a lot of users. Finley adds, “And consumers have made it clear that their demand for these drugs isn’t going away.” In order for the medications to be most effective, consumers need to alter their diets. Dr. Ali Chappell, a nutrition specialist and founder and CEO of Lilli Health, explains, “It’s important to limit foods high in glucose, such as sugar and starch, and instead focus on eating lean proteins, eggs, fatty fish, non-starchy vegetables, fruits, and healthy fats like nuts, seeds, and avocados. Eating enough protein is essential for maintaining muscle, but adjusting your overall diet is equally important to support a healthy metabolism and prevent muscle loss.”[3]
According to the market research firm Circana, “[GLP-1 medications are] having a profound impact on how consumers allocate their food and beverage and nonfood spending.”[4] The company concludes that these medications have brought the food industry to an “inflection point” that will shape spending patterns in the future. In fact, Circana analysts found that within the first year and beyond, GLP-1 weight-loss users change their spending habits significantly. How significantly? A study by Cornell University and Numerator found, “Households with at least one GLP-1 user slashed their grocery spending by approximately 6% within six months of medication adoption. … The impact was even more stark among higher-income households — defined as earning over $125,000 annually. Their grocery spending fell by almost 9%. … The impact of GLP-1 use extends beyond just calorie-dense items, with most food categories experiencing declines in purchases. The only exceptions are yogurt and fresh produce, which experienced an increase in spending among consumers taking GLP-1s for weight loss.”[5]
GLP-1’s Effect on Suppliers
Journalist Russell Redman reports, “Food and beverage companies will have quite a lot to swallow in digesting the effects of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on their industry, according to global business consultancy PwC. Consumers using or planning to use GLP-1 medications can be expected to make definite changes in the amount of food they buy and eat.”[6] And, as Leasca notes, “Food brands are taking notice.” PwC analysts add, “The prospect of tens of millions of Americans slashing their daily intake to about 1,000 calories per day — typical for GLP-1 users — has obvious potential to unsettle consumer packaged goods (CPG) leaders. While CPG new product launches have been in a lull recently, the emerging market demands visionary innovation.”[7]
Journalist Christopher Doering reports that the wave of new GLP-1-using consumers motivated Nestlé to launch its first major U.S. brand in nearly three decades.[8] Jennifer Barnes, Vice President of brand marketing at Nestlé, explained, “Weight loss has evolved, and so we are making sure that we’re evolving at the same pace to complement where it is going. We want to make sure that we’re leading in this space.” Nestlé isn’t alone in adapting to the GLP-1-user market. Food journalist Elaine Watson reports that the three most prevalent tactics being used by the food industry are:
● Re-positioning existing SKUs. According to Watson, “For most companies, [this tactic] is the obvious starting point. … [It involves] re-positioning existing SKUs as ‘companion’ products for consumers on GLP-1 drugs, from gut health products to counter unpleasant GI side effects to supplements to mitigate nutrient gaps caused by reduced food intake.”
● Developing new portion-controlled, nutrient-rich, high-protein products. Watson explains, “[This tactic involves] developing new portion-controlled, nutrient-rich, high-protein snacks or other products tailored to users of these drugs and those trying to wean themselves off said drugs without regaining all the weight, in part to counteract the muscle loss associated with taking these medications.”
● Adopting new marketing strategies. Watson notes that this tactic “could land some players in legal hot water” if they make false or exaggerated claims about their products. She explains that this tactics exploits “consumer interest in resistant starch, prebiotic fibers and other ingredients that naturally boost satiety either by stimulating gut hormones such as GLP-1 or via other mechanisms.” An example of a company using this strategy is Conagra Brands. Journalist Korin Miller reports, “Conagra Brands announced that the company will add an ‘On Track’ badge to 26 of its Healthy Choice frozen food items. This suggests that the products are high in protein, low calorie, and a good source of fiber, making them ‘GLP-1 friendly’.”[10]
Although it would be easy to become cynical and believe that food brands are merely out to exploit GLP-1 users, Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana, believes brands have an obligation to support consumers in their efforts to eat healthier. She says, “A deeper understanding of GLP-1 medications and their roles in weight loss has unlocked new opportunities to enhance the food, beverage and nonfood products that support consumers’ overall well-being. … It will become critical for companies to develop strategies that support consumers on their health journeys. For consumers needing help with getting to optimal GLP-1 levels, working with a medical professional to determine the right mix of medications, supplements, and/or CPG products will remain vital in managing their health over the long term.”[11]
GLP-1’s Effect on Grocers
According to grocery sector journalist Jeff Wells, grocers are taking a cautious approach adapting to the GLP-1 medication trend. He explains, “This wait-and-see approach from retailers is certainly understandable since it’s still early days for these drugs and their long-term impact on the market and on people’s bodies is not yet clear. But as they monitor developments, retailers should consider the parts of their business that could be most impacted by the widespread use of GLP-1 drugs, and how they might respond.”[12] Journalist Catherine Douglas Moran agrees that grocers will need to adapt to the GLP-1 medications trend. She reports that a study by Circana “found that GLP-1 shoppers spend more money on recommended foods and foods that help relieve side effects from the medication. At the same time, they pull back on items healthcare experts recommend they avoid while taking GLP-1s, including spicy foods, fatty proteins, beverages with added sugar, dried meat snacks and alcohol.”[13]
New planograms will undoubtedly emerge as grocers begin to adapt. Ulie reports, “Circana saw some key changes in the departments GLP-1 weight-loss users shopped. The biggest shift was in frozen foods, where GLP-1 weight loss users’ monthly spending fell 3 points from their pre-use baseline during their first year on the drug. Sales of center-store beverages also declined in the first three months. GLP-1 users increased their spending in the produce and deli departments within the first year and indicated in surveys they were seeking foods with added benefits such as protein, and foods with less sugar, salt and carbohydrates.”
Concluding Thoughts
The GLP-1 trend might not be an “adapt or die” situation; however, it is not going away. Wells reports, “Morgan Stanley estimates that 24 million Americans — roughly 7% of the population — will use GLP-1s by 2035.” Finley adds, “This presents an opportunity for consumer packaged goods companies and food sellers to introduce new products and retool their marketing strategies with a health-focused spin.” If the price of GLP-1 medications drops so that they become accessible to more people, their impact on the food industry will increase dramatically. Strategizing how to adapt to this changing landscape should be a top priority of food-related industries.
Footnotes
[1] Stacey Leasca, “1 in 8 People in the U.S. Has Taken a GLP-1 Drug and Food Brands Are Taking Notice,” Food & Wine, 12 January 2025.
[2] Dane Finley, “US households with GLP-1 users cut their grocery spending,” EMARKETER, 3 January 2025.
[3] Leasca, op. cit.
[4] Chuck Ulie, “Circana Talks ‘Profound Impact’ GLP-1 Drugs Have on Spending for Food, Beverages, More,” CSP, 8 January 2025.
[5] Finley, op. cit.
[6] Russell Redman, “GLP-1 drug boom set to disrupt food companies,” Baking Business, 6 January 2025.
[7] Ibid.
[8] Christopher Doering, “Nestlé debuts new brand for consumers using GLP-1 drugs, managing weight,” Food Dive, 21 May 2024.
[9] Elaine Watson, “From ‘GLP-1 companion foods’ to ‘Nature’s Ozempic…’ What the new breed of weight loss drugs means for the food industry,” AgFunder News, 23 January 2024.
[10] Korin Miller, “Foods Labeled ‘GLP-1 Friendly’ Are Coming to a Freezer Aisle Near You,” Yahoo Life, 19 December 2024.
[11] Ulie, op. cit.
[12] Jeff Wells, “‘Pardon the Disruption: How GLP-1s could reshape the grocery store,” Grocery Dive, 6 January 2025.
[13] Catherine Douglas Moran, “How grocers can appeal to consumers taking GLP-1s,” Grocery Dive, 9 January 2025.
