By Stephen DeAngelis
Those of us fortunate enough to live in peace and safety with easy access to food outlets seldom think about the domestic food supply chain — let alone the global food supply chain. However, we shouldn’t become complacent. Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, explains, “For many, going to the grocery store to purchase food or visiting a favorite restaurant are activities we often take for granted. We believe such food items will always be available. Yet food is more than an enjoyable good — it is a necessity for survival. Lack of food for just three weeks can be deadly for humans. Lack of water can be deadly in just three or four days.”[1] Some people might believe that the food supply chain is both robust and resilient. Unfortunately, it doesn’t take much to disrupt it.
Professor Jacobson notes, “The nation’s food supply chain is an intricate network of farms, processors, distributors and retailers that create and deliver the foods that we rely upon, purchase and enjoy. The logistics network that moves foods from such sources to retailers, the so-called ‘last mile,’ is both large and complex. It must manage the finite shelf-life and temperature demands of perishable foods, such as dairy products, produce, poultry, seafood and beef, ensuring that what is delivered can be safely consumed. The food supply chain operates non-stop, 24 hours per day, seven days per week, subject to weather disruptions and ever-present fluctuations and uncertainty in supply and demand. Any disruptions to this supply chain can have disastrous consequences, resulting in product shortages and, in extreme instances, empty grocery shelves, further exacerbating food insecurity.” If you think the domestic food supply chain is complex, consider how much more complex the global food supply chain must be.
Global Food Supply Chain At Risk
According to Adegboyega Oyedijo, an Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management at Baylor University, and Temidayo Akenroye, an Associate Professor of Supply Chain & Analytics at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, “The food supply chains that deliver goods from the farm to our plates are notoriously complex. They involve many upstream, midstream and downstream actors at different tiers, all of whom are responsible for supplying and transforming key raw materials, commodities and various items into finished products. The trend towards global sourcing and outsourcing is making this even harder, because of the varying nature of interdependencies and processes between firms, and the cooperative or adversarial relationships that exist between them.”[2] Because of these interdependencies, a disruption in one part of the supply chain can affect many other parts of the supply chain. Today, the greatest risk to global food supply chains is climate change. Changing climates can affect the crops that can be grown. Climate change can also affect water supplies. And severe weather can destroy crops that can’t be regrown until the next available growing season.
However, climate change is not the only risk. Jacobson notes that “cyberattacks, particularly ransomware, are an ever-present threat” and “natural threats, such as viruses,” can also disrupt the food supply chain. Human actions, such a work stoppages and strikes, are additional supply chain concerns. Science writer, Jenna Flogeras, observes that disruptions are seldom single events. She explains, “In the 21st century, humanity is being confronted with a ‘polycrisis’ of intersecting global issues.”[3] She also reports that research looking at worst-case scenarios paints a pretty bleak picture. She writes, “According to a team of researchers in Germany, New Zealand, and the United States, a sudden global-scale emergency that disrupts the electrical grid — like a nuclear war, solar storm, or large-scale cyber attack — could lead to massive crop yield losses of up to 75%.” One of the researchers, Florian Ulrich Jehn, Data Science Lead at ALLFED, stated in a press release, “This highlights how vulnerable modern agriculture is to a collapse in energy supplies.” Flogeras notes, “Just how badly a crop or geographical region would be impacted depends on multiple intertwining factors, which can have a ripple effect on the rest of the world. A disaster in a ‘breadbasket’ region — Central Europe or the United States — could quickly turn into a global catastrophe.”
Oyedijo and Akenroye point out that the lack of sustainability practices could also endanger the global food supply chain. They write, “In addition to food shortages, pre- and post-harvest losses, unsustainable land-water-energy use, food waste, food fraud and climate change issues, food supply chains continue to face other sustainability challenges such as forced labor and unethical trading practices.” These accumulative risks are enough to keep anybody up at night.
Making Global Food Value Chains Secure and Sustainable
Feeding the world’s growing population without destroying the planet is becoming a major concern. Fortunately, a lot of thought is being given to this subject. Harald Dutzler, Philipp Hallegger, and Ramon Tenge, analysts at Strategy&, observe, “Farming is facing multiple challenges today, such as climate change, changing demand, a shrinking labor force and persistent economic pressures. As these challenges are intensifying, they affect not only farming but the food industry as a whole, impacting the supply chains of Consumer Packaged Goods companies (CPGs) and grocery retailers. To tackle these challenges, two main, interlinked actions are open to farmers — bolstering their efforts in regenerative farming practices, and utilizing new digital technologies. Regenerative farming practices such as composting, agroforestry, integrated pest management or crop rotation are re-emerging on the market. These can help farmers to improve their sustainability record in various areas, from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to water pollution or land use, while also improving productivity and efficiency. At the same time, ongoing technological advancements in recent decades are shaping the future of agriculture by means of digitization, also leading to improvements in terms of sustainability, productivity and efficiency.”[4]
One of those technological advancements is artificial intelligence (AI). Stephen Dombroski, QAD’s Director for the Consumer Products and Food & Beverage vertical markets, explains, “In food manufacturing and the food supply chain, AI technologies are revolutionizing operations, enhancing efficiency, improving quality control and ensuring food safety. There are diverse benefits that AI brings to the food industry, from optimizing production processes and reducing waste to enabling personalized nutrition and enhancing traceability.”[5] He adds, “By harnessing the power of AI, the food industry can pave the way for a more efficient, transparent and consumer-centric future.” While it is important to pursue new knowledge about how to improve the global food supply chain, a group of scientists urges us not to forget about things we already know and the importance of sharing that knowledge. An article by the University of Vermont explains, “A team of international experts delves into the urgent need for democratizing knowledge to revolutionize global food systems. Titled ‘Knowledge Democratization Approaches for Food Systems Transformation,’ the article emphasizes the necessity of incorporating traditional, Indigenous, and place-based knowledges into decision-making processes to address blind spots in current food system policies and actions.”[6]
Some researchers believe the food supply chain needs a complete overhaul. Earlier this year, economists and scientists from the Food System Economics Commission (FSEC) issued a report calling for a transformation of the global food system. A press release about the report noted, “The scientists provide the most comprehensive modelling of the impacts of two possible futures for the global food system to date: our `Current Trends’ pathway, and the `Food System Transformation’ pathway. In its `Current Trends´ pathway the report outlines what will happen by 2050, even if policymakers make good on all current commitments: food insecurity will still leave 640 million people (including 121 million children) underweight in some parts of the world, while obesity will increase by 70% globally. Food systems will continue to drive a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, which will contribute to 2.7 degrees of warming by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial periods. Food production will become increasingly vulnerable to climate change, with the likelihood of extreme events dramatically increasing. FSEC also finds that the food system can instead be a significant contributor to economies, and drive solutions to health and climate challenges. In the `Food System Transformation` pathway, economists show that by 2050 better policies and practices could lead to undernutrition being eradicated, and cumulatively 174 million lives saved from premature death due to diet-related chronic disease. Food systems could become net carbon sinks by 2040, helping to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century, protecting an additional 1.4 billion hectares of land, almost halving nitrogen surplus from agriculture, and reversing biodiversity loss. Furthermore, 400 million farm workers across the globe could enjoy a sufficient income.”
Concluding Thoughts
Considering everything that could go wrong, people might begin to panic. Don’t — at least, not yet. Jacobson concludes, “Should people be concerned that the food supply chain is at risk of collapse? Certainly not. Yet prudent precautions and sensible planning can ensure that food remains safe and available today, and for the foreseeable future.” The reports noted above, and many others, indicate that there is much that can be done to make the global food supply chain more secure and sustainable. Change is never easy. The vast number of stakeholders who must buy into changing the global food supply chain makes transforming it more difficult — but not impossible. It is not hyperbole to say that the future of humanity rests on creating a secure and sustainable food supply chain.
Footnotes
[1] Sheldon H. Jacobson, “Is our food supply chain at risk?” The Hill, 3 July 2024.
[2] Adegboyega Oyedijo and Temidayo Akenroye, “Here’s how we make the $9 trillion global food supply chain sustainable,” World Economic Forum, 7 August 2024.
[3] Jenna Flogeras, “Just how secure is the global food supply?” Advanced Science News, 18 January 2024.
[4] Harald Dutzler, Philipp Hallegger, and Ramon Tenge, “Feed the world,” Strategy&, 15 March 2024.
[5] Stephen Dombroski, “The Benefits of Artificial Intelligence in Food Manufacturing and the Food Supply Chain,” QAD Blog, 11 March 2024.
[6] University of Vermont, “There is an urgent need for democratizing knowledge to revolutionize global food systems, researchers argue,” Phys.Org, 10 May 2024.
[7] Food System Economics Commission, “Transforming food systems could create multi-trillion dollars of economic benefits every year,” EurekAlert!, 29 January 2024.
