By Stephen DeAngelis
During the Second World War, Dwight D. Eisenhower rose to fame and political prominence as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe. He understood the cost of war as well as anyone. He once stated, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.” Eisenhower was not a pacifist. He was fully aware that there are times when countries must take up arms. He also knew that there are unintended consequences of conflict.
The Unintended Consequences to the Food Supply Chain
Since the start of Iran conflict in the Middle East, everyone is aware of the sharp rise in the price of a barrel of oil and the subsequent rise in gasoline and diesel prices at the pumps. Those were not the intended consequences of the conflict but they were consequences that could be foreseen. What is becoming more obvious is that unintended consequences of the conflict reach far beyond the energy supply chain. The staff at the Economist writes, “The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the larger another crisis looms. The waterway is vital for more than just fuel. Gulf states rely on it to import much of their food — roughly 80% of the region’s calories come from elsewhere. … Other consequences will be felt far more widely. Around a third of the world’s trade in the raw materials used to make fertilizers passes through the Strait. Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of urea, a crucial ingredient in synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. These are essential for modern agriculture: it is thought that half the global population would not be adequately fed without them. With planting season around the corner, a shortage could affect yields worldwide.”[1]
The staff at World Politics Review (WPR) discusses other areas that will be significantly affected by the conflict. They write, “In Brazil, which is heavily dependent on imported fertilizers for its soybean and corn production, the Agriculture Ministry assesses there is ‘a very high risk of supply shortages and rising domestic prices.’ And as Nima Shokri and Salome Shokri-Kuehni of the United Nations University recently wrote, farmers across much of sub-Saharan Africa are already having a hard time affording adequate fertilizer for their crops. The war-induced supply crunch will likely cause them to further reduce fertilizer usage further, exacerbating food insecurity.”[2] And the WPR staff observes that U.S. farmers will be affected as well. In a letter to President Trump, Zippy Duvall, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation, wrote, “Not only is this a threat to our food security — and by extension our national security — such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy.”
Fertilizer shortages are not the only unintended consequences of the conflict. Food journalist Flora Southey reports if the conflict continues there is likely to be a packaging crisis. She explains, “The food and beverage industry is inherently tied to plastic. As much as 40% of global plastic packaging is dedicated to the sector, with the vast majority of ready meals, bread, rice, cereals, meat, fish, and dairy products packaged in plastic. And that’s not even getting started on beverages: an estimated 600bn plastic bottles are produced globally for water alone, every year. So, it’s big news for F&B when plastic prices soar. And that’s what forecast to happen, imminently, due to rising tension in the Middle East and attacks on a vital choke point: the Strait of Hormuz.”[3] That means every consumer packaged goods (CPG) company in the world, and their customers, will feel the impacts of the conflict.
Beyond Food Supply Chains
Beyond the energy and food supply chains, other unintended consequences are being felt. Economics reporter Patricia Cohen explains, “In Kansas, home buyers saw 30-year mortgage rates edge above 6 percent. … In Western India, families mourning the death of a loved one discovered that gas-fired crematories had been temporarily closed. In Hanoi, Vietnam, gas station owners posted ‘sold out’ signs. In Kenya, tea growers and traders worried their exports to Iran would rot on the dock. … Cargo deliveries have been stranded, shipping charges have increased and insurance premiums have skyrocketed. Yes, the price of gas at the pump is affected. But so is the price of food, medicine, airplane tickets, electricity, cooking oil, semiconductors and more.”[4]
Air traffic to and from the Middle East has all but disappeared. As of mid-March, journalist Niraj Chokshi reported, “More than 52,000 flights to and from the Middle East — more than half of all flights planned in the region — have been canceled since the war began on Feb. 28, according to Cirium. An estimated six million passengers have been affected. The costs are adding up, too. Crews and planes for Middle Eastern carriers were displaced. And tourism to the region has effectively ground to a halt.”[5]
Consumers have also taken notice of worsening economic conditions. Journalist Matt Grossman reports, “Consumer sentiment declined to start March, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, one of the first readings on public opinion about the economy since the start of the Iran war.”[6] Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, told Grossman, “Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen [following attacks on Iran] completely erased those initial gains.” When consumer sentiment declines, spending decreases, and the economy suffers.
Concluding Thoughts
Supply chain journalist Marina Mayer writes, “The threats of tariffs, trade wars and protectionism, as well as disruption to supply chains and shipping caused by regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine are on the top of every board agenda.”[7] She reports that the greatest fear of business executives according to the Allianz Risk Barometer is: “Global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict involving multiple major economies, halting the movement of goods and raw materials.” A company can plan a coherent strategy based on fear. It’s clear that companies need help navigating a future filled with uncertainty.
As I wrote in a LinkedIn article, “The systems we’ve built — global supply chains, AI systems, digital platforms, financial markets — have become far more complex than the frameworks we use to manage them. And it’s starting to show. We see it when: Supply chains collapse under pressure; AI systems generate answers they can’t explain; organizations collect more data than ever… but struggle to make better decisions; and complex systems fail in ways nobody predicted. The problem isn’t just volatility or uncertainty anymore. It’s that our systems have outgrown the frameworks used to govern them.” Ways out of this conundrum include leveraging explainable AI solutions like the Enterra System of Intelligence™. The system combines the power of a human-like reasoning and trusted generative AI with glass-box machine learning and real-world optimization to drive intelligent decision-making and fuel business growth.
When unintended consequences dominate the headlines, companies need a way to get ahead of those consequences. Only AI-powered solutions can help accomplish that goal.
Footnotes
[1] Staff, “The World in Brief,” The Economist email, 14 March 2026.
[2] Staff, “Daily Review,” World Politics Review email, 12 March 2026.
[3] Flora Southey, “The packaging crisis about to hit food and beverage,” Food Navigator, 16 March 2026.
[4] Patricia Cohen, “Oil Shock Sends Tremors Through World Economy: ‘This Really Is the Big One’,” The New York Times, 12 March 2026.
[5] Niraj Chokshi, “War Has Grounded High-Flying Gulf Airlines Like Emirates,” The New York Times, 15 March 2026.
[6] Matt Grossman, “Consumer Sentiment Declined This Month, Per Michigan Survey,” The Wall Street Journal, 13 March 2026.
[7] Marina Mayer, “Geopolitical Conflict to Create Black Swan Scenarios for U.S. Supply Chains,” Food Logistics, 7 March 2026.
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